It’s a precarious situation, but pressure from the US and Saudi Arabia, among others, is gradually pushing the two warring sides towards a deal. But a lot can still go wrong.
Iranian commentators are warning of a potential economic shock and wider public unrest should Trump resume his ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against the country’s leaders.
Israel’s latest missile strike on Iran may be more a face-saving exercise aimed at satisfying members of its coalition government than a true escalation of hostilities.
How far the violent exchanges between Israel and Iran will escalate may well hinge on how strong the two sides’ leader need to appear to their own people.
In recent weeks, as thousands died and the threat of famine settled over Gaza, the relationship Israel and its western allies had started to fracture. Iran’s attack appears likely to change that.
A long-running conflict between adversaries Israel and Iran fell short of open confrontation – until both countries took more direct aim at each other.
Since the war began, Israel has exchanged tit-for-tat cross-border attacks with the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. It is imperative to prioritize diplomatic solutions that end the violence.
The bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus and storming of Mexico’s embassy in Quito breaks with accepted diplomatic norms − and could spell trouble.
Convenor of the Middle East Studies Forum (MESF), and Deputy Director (International) at the Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University