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Surplus

Analysis and Comment (10)

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A clear-headed analysis of the budget must delve beyond the buzzwords and political rhetoric. AAP

Making sense of a bootstrap budget

By John Wanna, Australian National University

Each year the budget is like an annual health check on a patient with many complexities. In a black coat, not a white one, the august Treasurer reports the nation’s temperature, provides much-needed tonics…
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System 1 thinkers on the left, System 2 thinker on the right? AAP

Budget 2012: Why the experts will get it wrong

By Jeffrey Braithwaite, University of New South Wales

It’s an old joke, but hard to resist around Budget time. That is, that economic forecasting was invented to make astrology look respectable. Over the past few days we’ve heard a lot about how notoriously…
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Size does matter: rather than be concerned about achieving a surplus or a deficit, the government should be focusing on how to manage its debt. AAP

Don’t forget the debt: there’s more to fiscal prudence than a return to surplus

By Kevin Davis, Australian Centre for Financial Studies

Treasurer Swan’s commitment to bring the government budget into surplus in 2012-13 may be a political imperative, but is not good economics. The focus for prudential fiscal management should instead be…
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Parlous states: despite staring down the barrel of recession, Victoria is set to deliver a budget surplus. But is this the right move for a stagnant economy? AAP

Is surplus the key to lifting Victoria out of its parlous state?

By Jakob Madsen, Monash University

The Victorian government is set to hand down its budget this week. Premier Ted Baillieu is committed to returning Victoria back into the black, after it spent the first six months of this year in a $341…
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Political, rather than economic: economists say there is no direct link to surpluses and lower interest rates. AAP

Can surpluses lead to lower interest rates?

By Graham White, University of Sydney; Sinclair Davidson, RMIT University, and Tim Battin, University of New England

The Federal Government is continuing its pre-budget surplus sell, with Prime Minister Julia Gillard directly linking its plans to return the budget to surplus to lower interest rates. Gillard will use…
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The ability of our politicians to achieve a surplus or balance the budget is spuriously taken as a measure of fiscal responsibility. AAP

Returning to surplus: the policy wall our politicians can’t see over

By Graham White, University of Sydney

The Federal Government’s quest to return the budget to surplus raises many questions and not just about what immediate rationale there is on economic grounds for this strategy. It also raises deeper questions…
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Treasurer Wayne Swan is maintaining a slimmed down surplus for 2012-2013 - but storm clouds are rolling over the global economy. AAP

Slimmed down surplus as Swan unveils mid-year budget: experts respond

By Sinclair Davidson, RMIT University; George Argyrous, University of New South Wales; John Vaz, Monash University; Michael Rafferty, University of Sydney, and Steve Keen, University of Western Sydney

The Federal Government is still aiming to deliver a slimmed down surplus next financial year, but has downgraded economic growth forecasts amid a slowing world economy and news that Europe may already…
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Policy or populism? Wayne Swan may be locking himself into a misguided stance on returning to surplus. AAP

Why is Wayne Swan locking himself into a return to surplus?

By Tim Battin, University of New England

It is just possible that the Federal Government’s public statements about the need to get back, at all costs, to a budget surplus for the 2012-13 year are based on a grim view of the intelligence of the…
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A return to surplus would make Wayne Swan happy, but its economic benefits are contested. AAP

What’s so good about a budget surplus?

By Pat McGrath, The Conversation

The Federal Government has come under renewed scrutiny over its commitment to bring the budget into to surplus by next year, with Delloite Access Economics forecasting a deficit of $1.9 billion for 2012…